The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
The Age of Extremes: The Short Twentieth Century - Eric HobsbawmFailure of prediction
Failure of prediction, failure of communism, end of imperialism, failure of free-market capitalism, fascism. Hobsbawm uses statistics to paint a broad picture of a society in a given time, alongside its arts and popular culture.
Insect Resistance Management: Biology, Economics, and Prediction
Insects, mites, and ticks have a long history of evolving resistance to pesticides, host-plant resistance, crop rotation, pathogens, and parasitoids. Insect resistance management (IRM) is the scientific approach to preventing or delaying pest evolution and its negative impacts on agriculture, public health, and veterinary issues. This book provides entomologists, pest management practitioners, developers of new technologies, and regulators with information about the many kinds of pest resistance including behavioral and phenological resistance.
Manipulations in Prediction Markets: Analysis of Trading Behaviour not Conforming with Trading Regulations
Fraud and manipulation in prediction markets are systematic results of incentive incompatibility, which, if present, have to be detected and balanced. "Manipulations in Prediction Markets" gives a critical insight into manipulations that are most likely to occur in prediction markets. In a general approach the book discusses the issue of incentives in markets and the breakdown of the incentive system. On this basis a new way of detecting irregular trading behaviour is introduced.
Covering such topics as astrology, alternative health, tarot, dreams, psychic phenomena and mind, body, spirit, Prediction has become widely acknowledged as the most authoritative and well respected magazine of its genre. Each month Prediction provides stimulating and thought provoking information for experts and beginners alike.
